This was an odd week in the NBA – plenty of upsets to go around. You’re right, we’re making excuses – our NBA predictor had a tough week this round. We had a total accuracy of 27/50 = 54%. The summary by point spread is at right. But seriously, who would have predicted results like back-to-back Laker victories over Atlanta and Houston (aside from die-hard Kobe fans)? Well, we certainly didn’t.
For the coming week we have further refined our algorithm in two ways. First, we have now incorporated a team’s away performance into their predicted home performance and vice-versa. And second, we now select the parameters from our model with a more thorough and systematic cross-validation method. Predictions are now up!