## NBA week 13 summary, week 14 predictions

Correct predictions on 31/50 or 62% of the games this past week, including a number of the significant upsets. However, we didn’t catch them all. Details by point spread below, and new predictions are up.

<= 5 11 36%
6-10 17 82%
11-15 12 58%
>15 10 60%

## NBA week 12 summary, week 13 predictions

We correctly predicted 36/53 of the games this past week, which equates to an accuracy of 67.9% — a slight improvement over the past couple of weeks, but still short of the 70% level we strive for (off by about one game!). The breakdown by point spread is below, and the new predictions are up. (more…)

## NBA week 11 summary, week 12 predictions

Again, reasonably good accuracy this past week — 36/54, or 66.6% overall. The breakdown by point spread is given below, and the new predictions are up.

We made a couple of changes to the dashboard this week. First, it has a new, cleaner look, thanks to Jaireh Tecarro, who kindly donated a redesign. Secondly, we discovered that our prior processing code implementation was inadvertently defaulting to a non-smooth rendering mode as a consequence of some coordinate transformations that we were making use of. This behavior was not explained in the general processing references, and so came as a surprise to us. We’ve reimplemented some of the drawing commands in order to avoid the problem, and we’ve documented it in our processing tips and tricks post.

< 5 11 45%
5-9 23 65%
10-14 18 78%
>14 18 72%

## NBA week 10 summary, week 11 predictions

Fairly good accuracy this past week — 33/49, or 67.8% overall. The breakdown by point spread is given below, and the new predictions are up!

< 5 9 44%
5-9 17 53%
10-14 15 67%
>14 18 94%

## NBA week 9 summary, week 10 predictions

A poorer than average, but not entirely out of the ordinary performance this week (given expected fluctuations): $32/54 = 59.3\%$. A slightly poorer performance might be expected on weeks like this – where a blockbuster deal completely changes part of the league: Apparently the Pistons are now unbeatable sans Josh Smith. (more…)

## NBA week 8 results, week 9 predictions

A pretty good bounce-back from last week’s results: $35/52 = 67.3\%$. Breakdown by point spread at right.

Week 9 predictions are up now on both our NBA Dashboard and the new and improved Weekly NBA Predictions Page (this also done in Processing).

## Quantifying the NBA Christmas week flop: one in ten thousand?

There were a number of upsets in the NBA this past Christmas week. Here, we offer no explanation, but do attempt to quantify just how bad those upsets were, taken in aggregate. Short answer: real bad! (more…)

## NBA week 7 results, week 8 predictions

The week that defeated the NBA predictor… $24/49 = 49.0\%$. That’s right, worse than a coin flip. Not exactly the Christmas present we had in mind. (more…)

## NBA week 6 results, week 7 predictions, intro to dash

$37/55 = 67.2\%$ accuracy this week. Summary by point spread is at right.

This week, we have posted a beta of our NBA dashboard.   (more…)

## NBA week 5 summary, week 6 predictions

Another pretty good result this week: $36/52 = 69.2%$. Accuracy by spread is at right.

A quick note on accuracy as an evaluation metric: We actually predict significant fluctuations in performance of our model from week to week. (more…)