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NBA 2015-16!!!

NBA is back this Tuesday! The dashboard and weekly predictions are now live*, once again. These will each be updated daily, with game winner predictions, hypothetical who-would-beat-whom daily matchup predictions, and more. For a discussion on how we make our predictions, see our first post on this topic. Note that our approach does not make use of any bookie predictions (unlike many other sites), and so provide an independent look on the game.

This season, we hope to crack 70% accuracy!

* Note that we have left up last season’s completed games results, for review purposes. Once every team has played one game, we’ll switch it over to the current season’s results.

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NBA week 22 results, NBA season review, MLB week 1

We finished the NBA regular season strong, with correct guesses on 41 of 56 games this past week — 73% accuracy. Overall, our season average was roughly 65%. This is significantly lower than those returned by the bookies this year, whose accuracy overall sat just under 70%. The differences there likely have much to do with information relating to individual players (eg injuries) that would be difficult to take into account in our team-centric modeling approach. It also took us a number of weeks to come up with a solid way of choosing our model’s hyperparameters. With these issues identified/settled, we anticipate improvements on these numbers next year. We won’t be modeling the NBA playoffs, so this will be our last basketball post for the current season — we had a blast!

With regards to the MLB, in our first week, we guessed correctly on 52/93 games, giving 56%. A somewhat poor result, fueled in part by the lackluster Giants. New predictions are up, with better accuracy hoped for this week!

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NBA week 18 summary, week 19 predictions

Excellent week: 39 for 53, or 73.6% accuracy! New predictions are up. This week, the algorithm continues to surprise, with lots of upset predictions. This includes a predicted OKC defeat of Atlanta tonight. Checking the dashboard for potential insight, we think this might be reasonable, given OKC’s excellent home record coupled with Atlanta’s relatively poor away record. You heard it here first folks.

UPDATE: OKC BEATS ATLANTA!!!

Point-spread details of the past week are given below.

Point spread # games Accuracy
< 6 15 67%
5-10 14 71%
11-15 11 73%
>15 13 85%

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basketball

NBA week 16 summary, week 17 predictions

This week, we went 36 for 56, giving 64% accuracy — decent. New predictions are up — again, lots of predicted upsets this week! One such upset predicted is a Clippers victory over the home team Warriors on Sunday… a game that one of us will be going to. Although we root for the local team, it’s always hard to feel bad when our baby guesses correctly, so we’ll be happy either way. Past week details below.

Point spread # games Accuracy
< 6 20 75%
5-10 17 65%
11-15 7 57%
>15 12 50%

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basketball

NBA week 15 summary, week 16 predictions

Not a terribly impressive week for the NBA algorithm. We went 31/53, equating to 58% accuracy. New predictions are up — lots of predicted upsets this week, including two tonight. As usual, I’ve found checking the dashboard to be a great way to gain insight into such picks. Details of past week by point spread below.

Point spread # games Accuracy
< 5 10 40%
5-9 13 62%
10-14 14 64%
>14 16 63%

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NBA week 14 summary, week 15 predictions

Our first ever 100% accuracy week! We will never beat this. Breakdown by point spread below, and new predictions are up.

In other news: This week, efavdb.com welcomes a new, official member to our team, Damien Ramunno-Johnson! He previously contributed two very interesting guest posts to the site, one on facial recognition software and one on the interpretation of wearable sensor data (eg, Jawbone’s up band). We aim to eventually bring site membership up to about four or five like-minded, yet complementary contributors, each interested in contributing about one machine-learning related post a month. We’re especially excited to welcome Damien on board — he’s an old pal, and also one with a keen eye for finding topics of general interest. In fact, we’re working on a joint post together right now that is both timely and interesting — stay tuned!

Details of our perfect week:

Point spread # games Accuracy
< 5 1 100%
5-9 0 NA
10-14 0 NA
>14 1 100%

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